life : yoga and meditation

Life is beautiful. 

Healthy body is the best gift to self.

Spend 1hr on yoga (physical exercise), meditation (mental peace).

number of thoughts

Focus on present to reduce the number of past and futuristic thoughts.

magic formula for stock market

Magic formula for stock market

There is no magic formula to grow money in stock market.

The first task should be to not lose money on an investment over 3 years.
The second task should be to match NIFTY and SENSEX returns over 3 yeas.
The third task can be to beat returns of NIFTY and Sensex over 3 years.


Every day and every month, I come up with a different formula.

1. We should invest in only NIFTY and Sensex companies but exclude something that doesn't match your taste. But these keeps changing and it is not under our control.
2. We should invest in PSUs as they give good dividends. 
3. We should invest in only golden stocks of ICICI but that also keep changing. What do we do the dropped companies?
4. We should invest in only companies that are large cap as they are proven.
5. We should invest in only mid cap companies as they will become large cap (or become small cap).
6. We should invest in only small cap companies as they will become mid cap or die down.
7. We should invest in only 1 leader company in each sector but what in case other company become leader. What about oligopoly? how to exclude other companies?
8. We should invest in only 3 companies in each sector. What in case several companies are there with similar characteristics? Is marketcap, profit, sales enough to identify top 3? Also it changing frequently. We don't have that much time to identify.
9. We should invest in only companies with high ROCE of either 18 or 24.
10. We should invest in only companies that are debt/free (debt/equity of 0)
11. We should invest in only dividend paymasters (who pay good dividends).

The answer lies somewhere in between.

• Do not invest in PSUs.Exclude PSUs as they are driven by greed of govt and are focussed on short term tenure. They will be forced to pay dividends even when they are in need of money. They will be told that debt cannot be raised without approval. They will be told that land doesn't belong to them etc but you ministry...so  it is difficult to arrive at a fair value. Sbi and sbi life is different as sbi life has external promoters.
• We should target companies that are VERY LOW (Value???) on debt as the debt generally doesn't bloom overnight. As long as the company is monitored once in 3 years, it should be good enough unless it is making lot of news.
• Fix the maximum debt/equity allowed.
• Don't relax it once it has been set.
• We should invest in only those who companies who have been paying dividend for last 10 years or from the listing year( in case they are newly listed).
• Fix the minimum DPR3 benchmark.
• Don't relax it once it has been set.
• We should look at ROE3 and ROCE3 for last 3 years.
• Fix the minimum ROE3/ROCE3 benchmark.
• Don't relax it once it has been set.
• Target price - we should look at the target price based on last 3 years.
• Fix the target price.
• Don't change the target price for 1 year (before next review). 
• Fix the margin of safety
• Fix the margin of safety over target price.
• Don't buy till the margin of safety hasn't been hit.
• Don't relax margin of safety.

Best

1. Select the stocks
1. Pick up all cap 500 stocks.
2. Exclude PSUs from those.
3. The best is to have 3 different people set first three things (d2e, dpr3, roe3/roce3)
4. These should be used to screen stocks from 'all cap 500'.
2. These two should be used for 'entering' the stock market.
1. The margin of safety should be set by 4th guy.
2. The target price for each stock should be calculated by 5th guy.
3. The exit rule will be covered in next blog.

Silence

Silence

Silent mind with zero thoughts is also a form of meditation.

My $HOME/.Xdefaults : SGD Font Size Fix

My $HOME/.Xdefaults

To fix the font size with SGD.

$ cat .Xdefaults
xterm*VT100*geometry: 80x25
xterm*font: -misc-fixed-medium-r-normal--13-200-75-75-c-100-iso8859-1
xterm*background: white
xterm*foreground: black
xterm*loginShell: true
xterm*scrollBar: true
xterm*rightScrollBar: true
xterm*title: XTerm
xterm*iconName: XTerm
xterm*saveLines: 50000
xterm*jumpScroll: true
xterm*scrollTtyOutput: false
xterm*scrollKey: true
xterm*alwaysUseMods: true
xterm*metaSendsEscape: true
xterm*utf8Title: true
$


Select the font using  xfontsel (X-Font Selector)
$ xfontsel

Font
$ fc-list :scalable=true:spacing=mono: family
DejaVu Sans Mono
Courier 10 Pitch
Liberation Mono
Nimbus Mono L
Noto Color Emoji
Cursor

$ xterm -fa "DejaVu Sans Mono" &


$ xlsfonts | more

$ vi ~/.Xresources
xterm*font: Courier 10 Pitch

$ xrdb -merge .Xresources

SQLite3

SQLite3 : Light weight embedded database.

Open a DB file

$ sqlite3 ./equity.sqlite3
SQLite version 3.7.17 2013-05-20 00:56:22
Enter ".help" for instructions
Enter SQL statements terminated with a ";"
sqlite> .help
.backup ?DB? FILE      Backup DB (default "main") to FILE
.bail ON|OFF           Stop after hitting an error.  Default OFF
.databases             List names and files of attached databases
.dump ?TABLE? ...      Dump the database in an SQL text format
                         If TABLE specified, only dump tables matching
                         LIKE pattern TABLE.
.echo ON|OFF           Turn command echo on or off
.exit                  Exit this program
.explain ?ON|OFF?      Turn output mode suitable for EXPLAIN on or off.
                         With no args, it turns EXPLAIN on.
.header(s) ON|OFF      Turn display of headers on or off
.help                  Show this message
.import FILE TABLE     Import data from FILE into TABLE
.indices ?TABLE?       Show names of all indices
                         If TABLE specified, only show indices for tables
                         matching LIKE pattern TABLE.
.load FILE ?ENTRY?     Load an extension library
.log FILE|off          Turn logging on or off.  FILE can be stderr/stdout
.mode MODE ?TABLE?     Set output mode where MODE is one of:
                         csv      Comma-separated values
                         column   Left-aligned columns.  (See .width)
                         html     HTML <table> code
                         insert   SQL insert statements for TABLE
                         line     One value per line
                         list     Values delimited by .separator string
                         tabs     Tab-separated values
                         tcl      TCL list elements
.nullvalue STRING      Use STRING in place of NULL values
.output FILENAME       Send output to FILENAME
.output stdout         Send output to the screen
.print STRING...       Print literal STRING
.prompt MAIN CONTINUE  Replace the standard prompts
.quit                  Exit this program
.read FILENAME         Execute SQL in FILENAME
.restore ?DB? FILE     Restore content of DB (default "main") from FILE
.schema ?TABLE?        Show the CREATE statements
                         If TABLE specified, only show tables matching
                         LIKE pattern TABLE.
.separator STRING      Change separator used by output mode and .import
.show                  Show the current values for various settings
.stats ON|OFF          Turn stats on or off
.tables ?TABLE?        List names of tables
                         If TABLE specified, only list tables matching
                         LIKE pattern TABLE.
.timeout MS            Try opening locked tables for MS milliseconds
.trace FILE|off        Output each SQL statement as it is run
.vfsname ?AUX?         Print the name of the VFS stack
.width NUM1 NUM2 ...   Set column widths for "column" mode
.timer ON|OFF          Turn the CPU timer measurement on or off
sqlite>


Show tables

sqlite> .tables
amfi           demat_summary  demat_txn      isin        


 sqlite>

Check Schema

sqlite> .schema amfi
CREATE TABLE amfi (
sno text,
company_name text,
isin text,
bse_symbol text,
bse_mcap  text,
nse_symbol text,
nse_mcap  text,
mse_symbol text,
mse_mcap  text,
avg_mcap text,
cap_type text,
unused1 text,
unused2 text
);
sqlite>


Import Data from File into Table

.import FILE TABLE


Quit SQLite

sqlite> .quit

Git

Download git from git-scm for windows

https://git-scm.com/


PyCharm is dependent on git.exe binary.

Ramesh Damani : Valuation

Ramesh Damani : interview at benett university.
...

Enterprise Value = mcap + debt

...

liquor was cheap in 2003  .. 100MN USD for 1BN people.

...

defence sector - PSU. Pvt sector will open up (sea, road, railway etc)
gaming sector - bullish ... casino gambling ... lot of neighboring countries have it.
 india doesn't have it ... it will open up ... casino space will open up.
  ** Delta Corp

QSR theme - looks interesting ... as more women work outside ... when they go out to eat ...
they want ac and hygienic ...
pizza and burgers - popular among you ... will play a role.
 ** Jubiliant Foods
 ** Westlife DEvelopment

Organized retail sector -  opportunities

aviation - warren buffett
...

how do you beocme millionaire ? earn 1 BN$ and buy an airline stock.

...

small cap .. large cap ... doesn't matter...

....

uday kotak - some promotoers have fudged .... risky balance sheet.

....

review balance sheet.

sales - increased 30% .... only receivables increased.

....
check things like.

does he pay dividends?
does he pay taxes?

5 year track record
10 year track record
...

analyst - forensic audit ... accounting works.

....

most large cap ... valuations have run high.



....

After his interview ... needs to analyze hdfc bank,  asian panints and HUL

Udaipur trip

Day 1 :

Today is first day of navratri.

First visited karani mata temple through ropeway car. Heard aarti...It can put anybody in meditative state by sound...Recorded the sound of aarti...

Boat ride at lake pichola.

Camel ride at lake puchola.

Visited city palace.

Visited jagdish temple. Heard ladies singing bhajan....Mira bani re joganiya..apne piya ki Mira bani re...

https://www.bhajandiary.com/apne-piya-ki-meera-bani-re-joganiya-lyrics/

Came across roadshow of Sindhi's ... Nice song also... Aaya jhulelal aaya...

Went to Baghore ki Haweli in evening for dance show called Dharohar of 1 hour from 7 pm to 8 pm... Thoroughly enjoyed the show...

Recorded several songs...

Day 2 :

Visited sukhadiya circle in morning. Has place for kids play and small boats for boating.

It is better to visit this place in evening.

Visited saheliyon ki badi..Small garden.

Went to moti magari near fateh sagar palace for museum on Maharana pratap.

After that visited fish aquarium ... Decent place with fish spa.

After that visited lok kala mandal..Has a place for puppet show...Better to visit in evening when it has folk dance program.

Had food at rajwadi thal...Decent just like rajdhani ...

Intrinsic Value - MyAvgIV

Intrinsic Value

One of the simplest calculation of the intrinsic value.

For a company that has consistent EPS growth.

MyAvgIv = EPS(TTM) * PE 5 year average

TTM - Trailing Twelve months

MyAvgIv = My Average Intrinsic Value

IPO price

IPO Price

2017, 2018, 2019

• Avenue
• Issue price  - 299
• Listing price - 608
•  
• Bandhan Bank
• Issue price  - 375
• Listing price - 477
•  
• Bharat Dynamics
• Issue price - 428
• Listing price - 363
• c
• CDSL
• Issue price - 149
• Listing price - 250 
• 
  
• GIC
• Issue price - 912
• Listing price - 850
• 
  

• Godrej Agrovet
• Issue price  - 460
• Listing price - 599 
•  
• HDFC  AMC
• Issue price  -1100
• Listing price -1794
•  
• HDFC Standard life
• Issue price  - 290
• Listing price - 329
• 
  
• Hindustan Aeronautics
• Issue price - 1215
• Listing price - 1152
• 
  
• ICICI Lombard General
• Issue price  - 661
• Listing price -669
•  
• ICICI Securities
• Issue price  - 520
• Listing price - 440
• Khadim India
• Issue price  -750
• Listing price -711
•  
• Lemon Tree
• Issue price  - 56
• Listing price - 71 
• 
  
• Mahindra Logistics
• Issue price  - 429
• Listing price - 427
•  
• 
  

OS differences : errno

OS differences : errno

On Linux, error number is 99.
On Solaris, error number is 126.

Linux box: /usr/include/errno.h
#define EADDRNOTAVAIL 99


Solaris box: /usr/include/sys/errno.h

errno.h:#define EADDRNOTAVAIL 126 /* Can't assign requested address */

System Programming Books

System Programming Books

 

Keep focus on : ipc mechanisms, memory, processes, signals, debugging, threading, networking/sockets, development tools, make etc

You can skip things like X window etc

Buy some of the following books and read these. They are available online too.

 

Try to read them in parallel and different chapters will also do.

  

(1) The Linux Programming Interface : A Linux and UNIX® System Programming Handbook

     by Michael Kerrisk

(2) Advanced Linux Programming :

      advancedlinuxprogramming.com

(3) Linux System Programming : Robert Love

(4) Begininng Linux Programming : Wrox

Investing philosophy

My Investment philosophy is inspired by

Vanguard index fund that covers many equity stocks. We need to put a reasonable limit.

Warren buffet principles like choose simple businesses that are easy to understand and pick leaders.

Avoid complex companies that are into too many things and it is difficult to identify value of each business and compare it with peers.

Reliance industries, L&T, ITC are complex companies. L&T is at least trying to list different subsidiaries.

D3D Home Camera

D3D Home Camera supports 128GB micro sd card. Bought it from SanDisk.

To access microSD card, USB connector is required.

The SD card needs to be formatted using default (extFAT).

D3D produces videos in .264 format without any extension.

We can use mediaplayerlite for this directly.

http://www.mediaplayerlite.net/

The VLC player didn't work even after some tweaks.

Eye Health

On 16 feb 2019

Got eye checkup done at eye foundation.

Left eye : -0.25 cylinderical

Right eye : -1.25 spherical

On 4-apr-2018

Technician told that Eye foundation had also written cylindrical -0.50 in right eye which is not necessary for you. Otherwise, it will lead to spinning for few days etc.

Existing glass : by vision express

Left eye : -1.00 spherical
Right eye : -0.25 cylindrical

Intrinsic Value

Intrinsic Value

Formula 1

Intrinsic Value = EPS x (8.5 + 2g)

EPS = Earning Per Share (trailing 12 months)

8.5 = PE of a stock @ 0% growth rate 

g = EPS growth rate (for next decade)

Formula 2

 Intrinsic Value = EPS x (8.5 + 2g) x (4.4/Y)

1962 : US corporate bond yield was 4.4%

Y : current corporate bond yield.

Formula 3

Intrinsic Value = EPS x (7 + g) x (4.4/Y)

* Reduced PE to 7 for conservative investors.

* Not many high growth companies during his time in 1962 ... Today, we can use 'g' for high growth companies.

https://www.tradebrains.in/find-intrinsic-value-of-stocks-using-graham-formula/

 

Laxmi Treatment Plan

30 September 2015 : treatment start date.

Laxmi has completed 12 weekly cycles (3 months) of Paclitaxel + Carboplatin.

Laxmi has completed 21 cycles ( 21 days) of Trastuzumab.

May & June 2016 : Thyroid. Total Thyroidectomy & I-131.

Aug & Sep 2016 : MRI Brain Mets. Cyberknife (6 Sep to 10 Sep).

Laxmi has completed 8 cycles (monthly 5 days) of Temozolamide.

Laxmi has completed 8 cycles of Capecitabine + Lapatinib.

Laxmi has completed 10 cycles (21 days) of TDM1.

In the second iteration,

Laxmi has completed 6 cycles (21 days) of Docetaxel + Carboplatin.

Today is 2nd cycle of Trastuzumab.

Valentine day

Valentine day

It just comes and goes...

At times, we buy a rose ...
At other times, a bouquet...

We find some relavent card ...

Have yummy food at a decent restaurant ...

Followed by a movie...

And Valentine day is over...

Let us wait now for next year...

Designation and Title

Unless the work profile changes, change in designation/title has no significance.

You can tag yourself with any title like CEO, VP, Director etc...

The title itself has no significance as the levels are different in each company.

Banks and financial institutions can make you AVP... assistant vice president.

computer science puzzles

Puzzles

https://www.quora.com/What-are-some-classic-computer-science-puzzles

Adani transmission

Adani transmission

Largest private sector power transmission company.

Already eached 13k ckm (circuit km).

Skin white patches

Consulted Dr Elizabeth for white patches on back side, koh (potassium hydroxide)  test was done by technician.

It is an inexpensive fungal test.

Result : Negative for P.V.

Dr : Harmless. Just ignore.

Sip

Surinder investment plan (SIP)

Invest in EPF (12.5% basic + equivalent employer share)

Employer Share:
Invest in EPS (8.33% : upper cap :fixed amount : 1250 RS X 12 months = 15k)
Invest in EPF ( 12.5% basic - EPS )

Invest in NPS tier 1 (10% basic + 50k)
Invest in PPF (1.5L)
Invest in SSY (1.5L)
Invest in NPS tier 2 (same as tier 1)

Invest in Mutual funds (only in top 10 house by amu)

Each fund house : limit to two or three  (diversified, large, mid)

Each mutual fund : cap : do not exceed monthly gross

Invest in Equities (choose close to 200 ..trim them with time and experience on corporate governance and other things).

World cancer day

World Cancer day
4th feb

Cancer has cure. Yes, healing is possible.

Kidney Stone

Kidney Stone :

 

Action Plan 

• Water Intake
• 1.5 Ltr  to 3 Ltr Water : Daily
• Best parameter : urine should not be yellow in color
• K-CIT (Potassium Citrate and Citric Acid solution)
• Already given by Dr : duration ?
• Effective for uric acid stone : after 6 weeks or prolonged treatment.
• Need to consult urologist on this.
• https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/19911683
•  
• Ayurved
• Need to consult Ayurvedic doctor for these
• Himalaya Cystone Syrup or Tablet
• Ideally 1-0-1 for 1 month or two
• Dabur Stondab Syrup/Tablet
• Baidhyanath Pathrina Tablet
• Kapiva Ayurveda Juice - Stone Go
• Keva Stone Crush
• 
  
• Homeopathic
• Identify : Preet homeopathy or alternative.
• Need to consult Homeopathic consultant.

Ayurved Options

Incredible Ayurveda - Banana, Peppermint, milk, water

https://zeenews.india.com/hindi/health/ayurvedic-treatment-for-ureter-stone-or-kidney-stone-janiye-peshab-ki-nali-se-pathri-nikalne-ka-gharelu-tarika-samp/918289

History

Check Excel sheet - Medical History

Equity Watch list 2018 2019

Equity Watch list 2018 2019

Keep a watch on following

New findings

One of the new problem that has surfaced is promoter playing with the money when they have

a single flagship companies and they want to diversify using a different holding company.

May 2018

• P C Jeweller
  The link between Vakrangee and P C Jewellers. The vakrangee was accused of  manipulating share price of P C Jeweller.
  Under Investigation.

Dec 2018

• Eveready industries
• Founder wants to off load. B M Khaitan group.

Jan 2019

• Sun Pharma

The promoters are involved in giving loan to their other unlisted companies.
Poor corporate governence.
Under Investigation.

• Zee group

Too much debt. Founder wants to off load.
Zee entertainment, Zee learn, Dish tv.

Too much debt due to overbidding by Essel infra in road, infrastructure, power transmission and solar power projects.

Debt also due to buyout of Videocon d2h by Dish tv.
Dish TV may be sold/merged.
What about essel propack?

Feb 2019

• Dewan Housing finance

 Possible diversion of money by promoters...

Inflation of loan book by giving loan to companies related to promoters.

Possible conflict of interest : took money from DHFL Primerica fund. Related party fund has lot of exposure to company.

The group (Wadhvan group and DHFL finance  holdings) trying to offload Aadhaar housing to Blackstone and divest DHFL Primerica to Primerica.

• Vedanta Limited:

Vedanta resources PLC was unlisted from UK stock exchange in 2018.

Vedanta Limited is a subsidiary of Vedanta resources.

Promoters have offloaded their holdings in Anglo American through Vedanta Resources PlC to Vedanta Limited.

Is there a game in it ?

Hindustan zinc is cash cow for promoters and is a subsidiary of Vedanta Limited.

2nd case : environmental concerns in Tamilnadu for Vedanta copper plant.

Mar 2019 

• Amara Raja Batteries
• The Amara Raja Batteries ends tie up with Johnson Controls (USA).
• Johnson control (USA) has sold the battery business to Brookfield Asset Management in USA.
• 2% bought by Galla family. 24% still with Johnson controls.
• Good: Fully absorbed current technologies.
• Worst Fear : New Technology development and transfer.  Who is technology provider for Exide?

Apr 2019

• Indiabulls housing fiance
• Indiabulls housing finance merges with Laxmi Vilas Bank. why?

Life lessons

Enjoy every moment of life. Live fully.

It is not enough to learn to accummulate.

Learn to put money to good use.

10 Year Financial Data

10 Year Financial Data

• Asian Paints
• https://www.asianpaints.com/content/dam/asianpaints/website/secondary-navigation/investors/annual-reports/staticreport/pdfs/business-review/tenyearsconsolidated.pdf
• Exide
• https://www.exideindustries.com/investors/key-financials.aspx

• Hero Motocorp
• 10Yhttps://www.heromotocorp.com/en-in/uploads/Annual_Reports/pdf/HMCL_Financials_at_a_glance1.pdf
• 10Y only till 2014-2015, new format is different in annual report. 
• HUL
• https://www.hul.co.in/investor-relations/annual-reports/ten-year-track-record/  
• 
  
• Infosys (3 year)
• https://www.infosys.com/investors/reports-filings/financials/Pages/data-sheet.aspx
• ITC
• https://www.itcportal.com/about-itc/shareholder-value/annual-reports/itc-annual-report-2018/pdf/Ten-Years-at-a-Glance.pdf
• https://www.itcportal.com/about-itc/shareholder-value/key-financials/key-ratios.aspx

• L&T
• http://investors.larsentoubro.com/Financials.aspx 
• It seems to show 10 year trends only till 2015-2016.  Why not latest trends? Is it due to change in accounting standards ?
• Maruti Suzuki
• https://www.marutisuzuki.com/corporate/investors/financials
• MRF
• https://www.mrftyres.com/financial-results
• Nestle
• https://www.nestle.in/investors/keyfigures
• https://www.nestle.in/investors/keyfigures-archive-2012-2016
• https://www.nestle.in/investors/keyfigures-archive

• Wipro
• https://www.wipro.com/en-IN/investors/last-5-years-data/

Portfolio holdings : Review 2019

Portfolio holdings : Review 2019

 Review these companies

• Shipping corporation of India (no dividend. why? Paid regularly till 2011.)
• Dish TV (No dividend. why ? Only once in 2018 in last few years.)
• Allcargo logistics : No dividend.
• Narayana Health : no dividend. Growth phase ? 
• Future Consumer
• Future Retail 
• IFB Industries